Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
